According to @GracyBitget, a Fed return to balance sheet expansion in 2026 is a high-probability macro scenario, and abundant liquidity could allow Bitcoin (BTC) to retest 150,000, which frames an upside trading setup if easing materializes, source: X post by @GracyBitget, Dec 1, 2025. She states she will not buy now and prefers to wait for concrete signs of liquidity easing before positioning, even if that means missing lower entry prices, which indicates a confirmation-based strategy for BTC exposure, source: X post by @GracyBitget, Dec 1, 2025. She cites three reasons for likely easing: improving US China relations, the unsustainability of elevated US interest rates amid AI-driven unemployment pressures, and a 2026 cluster of private credit refinancing stress that markets may not tolerate at high rates, source: X post by @GracyBitget, Dec 1, 2025.

According to @cas_abbe, quantitative tightening ends in two days and rate cuts are next, framing the strongest macro backdrop in months for risk assets, source: @cas_abbe. According to @cas_abbe, altcoins are still trading at a significant discount, prompting a market-wide discussion on what to accumulate, source: @cas_abbe.

According to @BullTheoryio, altcoins are entering a 2019–2021-style setup as liquidity turns and quantitative tightening ends December 1, a pattern that previously preceded risk-asset recoveries, source: @BullTheoryio. In the 2019 analogue, alt-BTC pairs rose 80%–90% while BTC fell 50%–60%, and the subsequent QE phase fueled a sustained altcoin uptrend, source: @BullTheoryio. The roadmap outlined is two-phase: 6–8 months of alt-BTC outperformance followed by 12–18 months of alt-USD outperformance if macro stays supportive, source: @BullTheoryio. Cited macro tailwinds include mid-term election stimulus expectations, potential new Fed leadership skewing toward easing, 2026 rate cuts, possible QE if growth slows, improving household liquidity via tax benefits, and rising global liquidity, source: @BullTheoryio. The trading focus is on quality altcoins with product-market fit, revenue, real users, and sustainable models, with small caps likely leading risk-on, while narrative-only tokens may lag, source: @BullTheoryio. Actionably, traders can monitor alt-BTC strength as an early signal and scale into quality alts as liquidity inflects while tracking the QT-to-QE pivot timeline, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to André Dragosch, most valuation frameworks—including liquidity-adjusted, gold-relative, and structural models—indicate Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below its macro fair value as we enter 2026, signaling a mispriced market rather than a misunderstood one, Source: André Dragosch on X, Nov 25, 2025. According to André Dragosch, the next edition of The Bitcoin Macro Investor will dissect the current state of the liquidity cycle, how institutional positioning is evolving, and the key on-chain and macro signals Bitcoin is emitting, Source: André Dragosch on X, Nov 25, 2025. According to André Dragosch, the session is a 60-minute live format with Q&A and is labeled not investment advice for professional investors with capital at risk, Source: André Dragosch on X, Nov 25, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, BTC is cointegrated with global money supply, implying a structural linkage between Bitcoin price and liquidity growth, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Nov 4, 2025. He states that the larger the deviation between BTC and global money supply, the fiercer the subsequent mean reversion or catch-up toward money supply, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Nov 4, 2025. For trading, this view supports monitoring the BTC versus global money supply spread as a mean reversion signal and managing position size for elevated volatility during catch-ups, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Nov 4, 2025.

According to Charlie Bilello, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet fell 24 percent over the last three years while the S&P 500 rose 90 percent, showing equities advanced during quantitative tightening rather than quantitative easing, source: Charlie Bilello on X dated Nov 1, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, this regime suggests liquidity-only models tied to Fed balance sheet size would not have captured the full SPX uptrend in this window, making trend and earnings driven signals more relevant for trade timing, source: Charlie Bilello on X dated Nov 1, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, crypto market participants should note that risk assets can rally despite balance sheet contraction, indicating central bank liquidity is not a standalone buy signal for digital assets, source: Charlie Bilello on X dated Nov 1, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, a detailed video breakdown is provided for further context on the SPX move and the balance sheet trajectory, source: YouTube video referenced by Charlie Bilello.

According to the source, Bitcoin traders are monitoring potential shifts in the Federal Reserve balance sheet because the weekly H.4.1 release details total assets and reserve balances that indicate U.S. dollar liquidity conditions relevant for risk assets like BTC, as published by the Federal Reserve Board at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41.htm. Key liquidity channels include the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility, where changes in outstanding balances reflect shifts between money funds and bank reserves, with daily operation results published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo. Flows in the Treasury General Account at the Fed can drain or add reserves to the banking system, and traders track the TGA via the U.S. Treasury’s Daily Treasury Statement at https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/dts.

According to the source, VanEck characterizes October’s Bitcoin (BTC) pullback as a mid-cycle reset rather than a bear market, citing normalized leverage, rising on-chain activity, and liquidity as the cycle’s driver, source: VanEck. For traders, this view supports a trend-continuation bias and prioritizes monitoring leverage metrics, on-chain engagement, and liquidity proxies for confirmation of cycle strength, source: VanEck.

According to @CryptoMichNL, expectations from previous altcoin cycles no longer apply, and the current market is in a longer cycle that is closely tied to liquidity, delaying a broad altcoin run (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Oct 19, 2025). He states that the prevalent frustration comes from outdated cycle assumptions and emphasizes he is patient rather than fearful about his altcoin portfolio, suggesting traders should align entries and risk with liquidity trends rather than legacy timing models (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Oct 19, 2025). This view implies waiting for clear signs of improving market liquidity before anticipating across-the-board altcoin momentum and adjusting position sizing accordingly (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Oct 19, 2025).

According to @MilkRoadDaily, BTC is commonly tracked against Global M2 and ETH follows the same pattern with roughly a three-month lag this year after shifting Global M2 forward, aligning closely with ETH’s 2025 price action, source: @MilkRoadDaily on X, Oct 16, 2025. If that correlation holds through Q4, ETH could reach 6000 or higher by December 2025, creating a time-bound upside scenario tied to the global liquidity cycle, source: @MilkRoadDaily on X, Oct 16, 2025.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, global liquidity is rising again after the U.S. Treasury drained roughly $500B to refill the Treasury General Account and is no longer removing a major drag on liquidity, citing the U.S. Treasury cash refill as the driver. According to @MilkRoadDaily, BTC has already reacted to this liquidity inflection, indicating improving crypto risk appetite. Traders can verify the Treasury General Account rebuild and ongoing trend via the U.S. Treasury Daily Statement as the source and monitor ON RRP usage and reserve balances via the Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release as the source. According to @MilkRoadDaily, if liquidity continues to expand, crypto benchmarks like BTC could push significantly higher, making liquidity metrics a key part of the trading playbook.

According to @AltcoinGordon, the current state of global M2 liquidity argues that capping Bitcoin (BTC) at $90,000 is too conservative and that upside targets should be set higher (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025). For trading, this thesis supports a bullish continuation bias for BTC, favoring strategies that lean into strength rather than taking profit at $90K as a hard ceiling (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025). The risk to this view is a reversal in global M2 growth; if liquidity rolls over, the bullish extension case weakens and traders should reassess exposure (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025). Monitoring global liquidity metrics alongside BTC momentum and funding can help confirm or invalidate the thesis in real time (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025).

According to @AltcoinGordon, gold and global M2 are printing all‑time highs while BTC is lagging, and he projects Bitcoin could reach $150k by late 2025 or Q1 2026 (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 16, 2025). World Gold Council data confirms gold set new record prices in 2024 alongside record central‑bank purchases, reinforcing a liquidity‑tailwind backdrop for risk assets (source: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends 2024 and Central Bank Gold Buying 2023 reports). Historically, major BTC advances have coincided with broad money acceleration—during the 2020–2021 liquidity surge, BTC rose from roughly $7k in early 2020 to about $69k in Nov 2021 (source: IMF International Financial Statistics global broad money series; CoinGecko BTC historical prices 2020–2021). For traders leaning into this thesis, a sustained upturn in global M2 year‑over‑year and stable‑to‑falling U.S. real yields are key confirmations to increase risk, while decelerating liquidity and rising real yields warrant reduced exposure and tighter stops (source: IMF IFS for global M2; Federal Reserve H.15 real yield series). A breakout with follow‑through above prior cycle highs tends to favor momentum strategies, whereas failed breakouts near liquidity slowdowns raise drawdown risk (source: AQR, Time Series Momentum, 2012; CoinGecko BTC price behavior around the 2021 ATH).

According to @rovercrc, the trading thesis contrasts Bitcoin’s fixed 21,000,000 BTC cap with elastic fiat supply, highlighting a long-term scarcity case for BTC positioning (source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). Bitcoin’s supply is programmatically capped at 21 million and the block subsidy fell to 3.125 BTC per block after the April 2024 halving, reducing new issuance and net supply growth (source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide). Major fiat currencies such as USD have no predetermined maximum supply; central banks can expand the monetary base via tools like open market operations and quantitative easing during policy easing cycles (source: Federal Reserve Education; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). For traders, the declining BTC issuance relative to expandable fiat supply is frequently cited in institutional allocation frameworks as a scarcity-driven rationale, while acknowledging BTC’s high volatility and macro liquidity sensitivity (source: Fidelity Digital Assets research; Federal Reserve research on liquidity conditions).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the crypto market is at the beginning of the macro cycle rather than the end, which shifts near-term BTC trading catalysts toward macro liquidity and rates rather than event-led narratives (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 8, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Bitcoin halving has become less important for price action, implying that halving-driven strategies may carry lower edge versus macro sensitivity in the current phase (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 8, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders who ignore macro-cycle positioning risk underperforming as beta and flows react more to broader economic conditions than the supply schedule (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 8, 2025).

According to @cas_abbe, USD weakness historically aligns with an expansion in global money supply, and during these liquidity upswings BTC is typically the first mover, with the same setup unfolding today, source: @cas_abbe on X.

According to @cas_abbe, if the pattern persists into Q4 2025, BTC is expected to break to new highs first, ETH to advance once BTC stabilizes, and altcoins to rotate later with their strongest gains at the end of the liquidity cycle. Source: @cas_abbe. For trading, this sequence favors early focus on BTC breakout setups, a pivot to ETH as BTC volatility compresses, and late-cycle momentum positioning in altcoins. Source: @cas_abbe.

According to @cas_abbe, crypto is tracking global liquidity rather than moving in isolation, with a weakening U.S. dollar and rising global M2 providing a strong foundation for Bitcoin’s next leg higher; source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025. The trading takeaway is to monitor the USD trend (DXY) and global M2 growth as leading signals for BTC momentum, summarized as dollar down, liquidity up, Bitcoin next; source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025.

According to @cas_abbe, rising global M2 historically aligned with BTC upside in 2020 when BTC advanced from roughly $5K to $65K as M2 surged, while a flat M2 backdrop in 2023 aligned with BTC consolidation, and renewed M2 expansion in 2025 aligns with BTC holding above $100K, source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025. According to @cas_abbe, traders can treat global M2 trend as a top-down risk gauge for BTC direction by monitoring M2 acceleration or deceleration to anticipate momentum shifts and by viewing $100K as a key psychological level while liquidity rises, source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025. According to @cas_abbe, an actionable approach is to track global M2 YoY and 3-month annualized changes, set alerts around the $100K spot level and derivatives funding when M2 inflects, and align position sizing with the liquidity regime implied by M2 trends, source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025.

According to @rovercrc, the Federal Reserve is set to cut rates soon and record-high US money supply and national debt could accelerate a liquidity flywheel into Bitcoin (BTC) (source: @rovercrc on X, Aug 25, 2025). Traders should verify policy timing and guidance directly via the Federal Reserve’s FOMC statements, minutes, and economic projections before positioning (source: Federal Reserve). For confirmation, monitor US real yields and the US Dollar Index (DXY); sustained declines often coincide with stronger risk-asset performance during easing cycles (source: Federal Reserve; BIS Quarterly Review). Track BTC market plumbing around meetings: spot volumes, perpetual funding, and CME futures open interest to gauge if capital is rotating into crypto on policy changes (source: CME Group; Glassnode). If the Fed maintains restrictive policy and real yields or DXY rise, downside pressure on BTC historically increases, so define invalidation levels and adjust position sizing accordingly (source: Federal Reserve; BIS Quarterly Review).