According to @BullTheoryio, gold has reached a new all-time high and has historically led BTC during liquidity upcycles, with Bitcoin following after a lag. Source: @BullTheoryio. The source cites 2016–2017 and 2020–2021 as precedents where gold advanced first under improving liquidity or QE, then BTC accelerated once gold momentum weakened. Source: @BullTheoryio. For 2025, the source points to three Fed rate cuts, approximately 40 billion dollars per month in U.S. Treasury T-bill purchases, and record global money supply as signs of improving liquidity while gold trends strong and BTC lags, implying a potential rotation setup. Source: @BullTheoryio. The source adds that gold appears overbought near term, and a cooling in gold could precede a BTC outperformance phase similar to prior cycles. Source: @BullTheoryio. Market-cap context from the source notes BTC around 1.8 trillion dollars versus gold near 31 trillion dollars, with gold adding roughly 17 trillion dollars over the last two years. Source: @BullTheoryio.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the shared model shows the average BTC path after the Relative Strength Index drops below 30 at t=0, with price action so far closely tracking the historical trajectory, which is relevant for timing entries after oversold conditions and managing risk during recoveries; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the view presented rejects the traditional 4-year Bitcoin cycle, arguing the cycle has been broken and likely extends well into 2026 based on business cycle work, current financial conditions, and expected liquidity, which supports a medium-term bullish bias; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI. According to @Andre_Dragosch, the rationale ties the prior 4-year rhythm to the public debt refinancing cycle rather than the halving, noting an increase in the weighted average maturity of the debt structure and large interest expense needing monetization as structural liquidity drivers, which is constructive for BTC risk allocation; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI. According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders should expect base-building with choppy ranges before a larger up-move, favoring a disciplined accumulation approach and patience, aligning with the “stay humble and stack sats” mindset for DCA and position adds on dips; Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Dec 17, 2025, citing @BittelJulien and GMI.

According to @BullTheoryio, markets are preparing for a Federal Reserve balance-sheet pivot, with some banks expecting roughly 45 billion dollars per month of bond purchases starting January 2026, signaling an early-stage QE setup, source: @BullTheoryio, Dec 9, 2025. The author notes the S&P 500 closed just below its all-time high despite restrictive rates, indicating investors are pricing future liquidity rather than current conditions, source: @BullTheoryio, Dec 9, 2025. The post highlights a split economy where asset-owning households benefit from rising equities, while small businesses and lower-income consumers face high borrowing costs, rising layoffs, and credit stress, source: @BullTheoryio, Dec 9, 2025. The author argues rate cuts alone cannot bridge this gap, making the Fed’s 6.5 trillion dollar balance sheet the key policy lever to watch after the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, source: @BullTheoryio, Dec 9, 2025. The current setup described includes stocks near record highs, a December rate cut seen as almost certain, and growing expectations of 2026 liquidity expansion, source: @BullTheoryio, Dec 9, 2025. For crypto traders, the author states that once liquidity expectations turn, risk assets typically lead, with crypto often reacting first, implying upside beta potential for BTC and ETH if the Fed hints at QE, source: @BullTheoryio, Dec 9, 2025. Near-term trade focus is on FOMC guidance about balance-sheet policy, as markets tend to move before official announcements, source: @BullTheoryio, Dec 9, 2025.

According to @GracyBitget, a Fed return to balance sheet expansion in 2026 is a high-probability macro scenario, and abundant liquidity could allow Bitcoin (BTC) to retest 150,000, which frames an upside trading setup if easing materializes, source: X post by @GracyBitget, Dec 1, 2025. She states she will not buy now and prefers to wait for concrete signs of liquidity easing before positioning, even if that means missing lower entry prices, which indicates a confirmation-based strategy for BTC exposure, source: X post by @GracyBitget, Dec 1, 2025. She cites three reasons for likely easing: improving US China relations, the unsustainability of elevated US interest rates amid AI-driven unemployment pressures, and a 2026 cluster of private credit refinancing stress that markets may not tolerate at high rates, source: X post by @GracyBitget, Dec 1, 2025.

According to @cas_abbe, quantitative tightening ends in two days and rate cuts are next, framing the strongest macro backdrop in months for risk assets, source: @cas_abbe. According to @cas_abbe, altcoins are still trading at a significant discount, prompting a market-wide discussion on what to accumulate, source: @cas_abbe.

According to @BullTheoryio, altcoins are entering a 2019–2021-style setup as liquidity turns and quantitative tightening ends December 1, a pattern that previously preceded risk-asset recoveries, source: @BullTheoryio. In the 2019 analogue, alt-BTC pairs rose 80%–90% while BTC fell 50%–60%, and the subsequent QE phase fueled a sustained altcoin uptrend, source: @BullTheoryio. The roadmap outlined is two-phase: 6–8 months of alt-BTC outperformance followed by 12–18 months of alt-USD outperformance if macro stays supportive, source: @BullTheoryio. Cited macro tailwinds include mid-term election stimulus expectations, potential new Fed leadership skewing toward easing, 2026 rate cuts, possible QE if growth slows, improving household liquidity via tax benefits, and rising global liquidity, source: @BullTheoryio. The trading focus is on quality altcoins with product-market fit, revenue, real users, and sustainable models, with small caps likely leading risk-on, while narrative-only tokens may lag, source: @BullTheoryio. Actionably, traders can monitor alt-BTC strength as an early signal and scale into quality alts as liquidity inflects while tracking the QT-to-QE pivot timeline, source: @BullTheoryio.

According to André Dragosch, most valuation frameworks—including liquidity-adjusted, gold-relative, and structural models—indicate Bitcoin (BTC) is trading below its macro fair value as we enter 2026, signaling a mispriced market rather than a misunderstood one, Source: André Dragosch on X, Nov 25, 2025. According to André Dragosch, the next edition of The Bitcoin Macro Investor will dissect the current state of the liquidity cycle, how institutional positioning is evolving, and the key on-chain and macro signals Bitcoin is emitting, Source: André Dragosch on X, Nov 25, 2025. According to André Dragosch, the session is a 60-minute live format with Q&A and is labeled not investment advice for professional investors with capital at risk, Source: André Dragosch on X, Nov 25, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, BTC is cointegrated with global money supply, implying a structural linkage between Bitcoin price and liquidity growth, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Nov 4, 2025. He states that the larger the deviation between BTC and global money supply, the fiercer the subsequent mean reversion or catch-up toward money supply, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Nov 4, 2025. For trading, this view supports monitoring the BTC versus global money supply spread as a mean reversion signal and managing position size for elevated volatility during catch-ups, source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Nov 4, 2025.

According to Charlie Bilello, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet fell 24 percent over the last three years while the S&P 500 rose 90 percent, showing equities advanced during quantitative tightening rather than quantitative easing, source: Charlie Bilello on X dated Nov 1, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, this regime suggests liquidity-only models tied to Fed balance sheet size would not have captured the full SPX uptrend in this window, making trend and earnings driven signals more relevant for trade timing, source: Charlie Bilello on X dated Nov 1, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, crypto market participants should note that risk assets can rally despite balance sheet contraction, indicating central bank liquidity is not a standalone buy signal for digital assets, source: Charlie Bilello on X dated Nov 1, 2025. According to Charlie Bilello, a detailed video breakdown is provided for further context on the SPX move and the balance sheet trajectory, source: YouTube video referenced by Charlie Bilello.

According to the source, Bitcoin traders are monitoring potential shifts in the Federal Reserve balance sheet because the weekly H.4.1 release details total assets and reserve balances that indicate U.S. dollar liquidity conditions relevant for risk assets like BTC, as published by the Federal Reserve Board at https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41.htm. Key liquidity channels include the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility, where changes in outstanding balances reflect shifts between money funds and bank reserves, with daily operation results published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo. Flows in the Treasury General Account at the Fed can drain or add reserves to the banking system, and traders track the TGA via the U.S. Treasury’s Daily Treasury Statement at https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/dts.

According to the source, VanEck characterizes October’s Bitcoin (BTC) pullback as a mid-cycle reset rather than a bear market, citing normalized leverage, rising on-chain activity, and liquidity as the cycle’s driver, source: VanEck. For traders, this view supports a trend-continuation bias and prioritizes monitoring leverage metrics, on-chain engagement, and liquidity proxies for confirmation of cycle strength, source: VanEck.

According to @CryptoMichNL, expectations from previous altcoin cycles no longer apply, and the current market is in a longer cycle that is closely tied to liquidity, delaying a broad altcoin run (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Oct 19, 2025). He states that the prevalent frustration comes from outdated cycle assumptions and emphasizes he is patient rather than fearful about his altcoin portfolio, suggesting traders should align entries and risk with liquidity trends rather than legacy timing models (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Oct 19, 2025). This view implies waiting for clear signs of improving market liquidity before anticipating across-the-board altcoin momentum and adjusting position sizing accordingly (source: @CryptoMichNL on X, Oct 19, 2025).

According to @MilkRoadDaily, BTC is commonly tracked against Global M2 and ETH follows the same pattern with roughly a three-month lag this year after shifting Global M2 forward, aligning closely with ETH’s 2025 price action, source: @MilkRoadDaily on X, Oct 16, 2025. If that correlation holds through Q4, ETH could reach 6000 or higher by December 2025, creating a time-bound upside scenario tied to the global liquidity cycle, source: @MilkRoadDaily on X, Oct 16, 2025.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, global liquidity is rising again after the U.S. Treasury drained roughly $500B to refill the Treasury General Account and is no longer removing a major drag on liquidity, citing the U.S. Treasury cash refill as the driver. According to @MilkRoadDaily, BTC has already reacted to this liquidity inflection, indicating improving crypto risk appetite. Traders can verify the Treasury General Account rebuild and ongoing trend via the U.S. Treasury Daily Statement as the source and monitor ON RRP usage and reserve balances via the Federal Reserve H.4.1 statistical release as the source. According to @MilkRoadDaily, if liquidity continues to expand, crypto benchmarks like BTC could push significantly higher, making liquidity metrics a key part of the trading playbook.

According to @AltcoinGordon, the current state of global M2 liquidity argues that capping Bitcoin (BTC) at $90,000 is too conservative and that upside targets should be set higher (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025). For trading, this thesis supports a bullish continuation bias for BTC, favoring strategies that lean into strength rather than taking profit at $90K as a hard ceiling (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025). The risk to this view is a reversal in global M2 growth; if liquidity rolls over, the bullish extension case weakens and traders should reassess exposure (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025). Monitoring global liquidity metrics alongside BTC momentum and funding can help confirm or invalidate the thesis in real time (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025).

According to @AltcoinGordon, gold and global M2 are printing all‑time highs while BTC is lagging, and he projects Bitcoin could reach $150k by late 2025 or Q1 2026 (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 16, 2025). World Gold Council data confirms gold set new record prices in 2024 alongside record central‑bank purchases, reinforcing a liquidity‑tailwind backdrop for risk assets (source: World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends 2024 and Central Bank Gold Buying 2023 reports). Historically, major BTC advances have coincided with broad money acceleration—during the 2020–2021 liquidity surge, BTC rose from roughly $7k in early 2020 to about $69k in Nov 2021 (source: IMF International Financial Statistics global broad money series; CoinGecko BTC historical prices 2020–2021). For traders leaning into this thesis, a sustained upturn in global M2 year‑over‑year and stable‑to‑falling U.S. real yields are key confirmations to increase risk, while decelerating liquidity and rising real yields warrant reduced exposure and tighter stops (source: IMF IFS for global M2; Federal Reserve H.15 real yield series). A breakout with follow‑through above prior cycle highs tends to favor momentum strategies, whereas failed breakouts near liquidity slowdowns raise drawdown risk (source: AQR, Time Series Momentum, 2012; CoinGecko BTC price behavior around the 2021 ATH).

According to @rovercrc, the trading thesis contrasts Bitcoin’s fixed 21,000,000 BTC cap with elastic fiat supply, highlighting a long-term scarcity case for BTC positioning (source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System). Bitcoin’s supply is programmatically capped at 21 million and the block subsidy fell to 3.125 BTC per block after the April 2024 halving, reducing new issuance and net supply growth (source: Bitcoin.org Developer Guide). Major fiat currencies such as USD have no predetermined maximum supply; central banks can expand the monetary base via tools like open market operations and quantitative easing during policy easing cycles (source: Federal Reserve Education; Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). For traders, the declining BTC issuance relative to expandable fiat supply is frequently cited in institutional allocation frameworks as a scarcity-driven rationale, while acknowledging BTC’s high volatility and macro liquidity sensitivity (source: Fidelity Digital Assets research; Federal Reserve research on liquidity conditions).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the crypto market is at the beginning of the macro cycle rather than the end, which shifts near-term BTC trading catalysts toward macro liquidity and rates rather than event-led narratives (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 8, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Bitcoin halving has become less important for price action, implying that halving-driven strategies may carry lower edge versus macro sensitivity in the current phase (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 8, 2025). According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders who ignore macro-cycle positioning risk underperforming as beta and flows react more to broader economic conditions than the supply schedule (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X, Sep 8, 2025).

According to @cas_abbe, USD weakness historically aligns with an expansion in global money supply, and during these liquidity upswings BTC is typically the first mover, with the same setup unfolding today, source: @cas_abbe on X.

According to @cas_abbe, if the pattern persists into Q4 2025, BTC is expected to break to new highs first, ETH to advance once BTC stabilizes, and altcoins to rotate later with their strongest gains at the end of the liquidity cycle. Source: @cas_abbe. For trading, this sequence favors early focus on BTC breakout setups, a pivot to ETH as BTC volatility compresses, and late-cycle momentum positioning in altcoins. Source: @cas_abbe.